Cryptocurrency apps on mobile devices have become so popular that they are now an unofficial indicator of retail investor interest, with observers identifying a correlation between their high rankings in Apple's App Store and rising cryptocurrency prices.

While millions own cryptocurrencies, many remain passive holders. For wider adoption, Matsuoka says blockchain developers need to find “the right balance between security, privacy and ease of use,” acknowledging that the task is “not trivial.” However, partner a16z believes that blockchain infrastructure can now handle “hundreds of millions – or billions – of people connected to the chain,” adding that it is “a better time than ever to build a next-generation mobile wallet” than ever before. .

according to Data From Statista, the countries with the highest adoption of mobile wallets are in Asia, despite the presence of major US brands like PayPal, Apple Pay and Google Pay. This trend is no coincidence given that in emerging markets, mobile wallets are being used as a tool to address the problem of the unbanked population. As a result, the next major innovation in mobile cryptocurrency wallets may emerge from this region.

Stablecoins are everywhere

Stablecoins had a big moment in 2024. Lower transaction fees made them more useful for things like cross-border payments, money transfers, and even just buying everyday things. They also help people in countries with insane inflation in stored value (such as Argentina and Turkey).

“Stablecoins are already the cheapest way to send dollars, and we expect businesses to increasingly accept stablecoins for payments.”

Darren Matsuoka

However, there is still no dominant solution that brings stablecoin payments closer to traditional methods, leaving a significant gap in the market.

Matsuoka points out that stablecoin payments are rapidly gaining momentum and show no signs of slowing down like payment giant Visa. It has evolved A dashboard to distinguish real stablecoin usage from bot-based transactions.

“If adoption of stablecoins — one of the most obvious use cases for cryptocurrencies — takes off in 2025, this will be a metric worth watching,” says Matsuoka.

Exchange-traded products are bringing Bitcoin and Ethereum to the masses

Last year, Bitcoin and Ethereum got the first proper exchange-traded funds approved in the United States, making it easier for everyday people — and large institutions — to invest in cryptocurrencies.

However, so far, these ETFs have attracted only 515,000 BTC (about $110 billion) and 611,000 ETH (about $13 billion), Matsuoka notes, adding that “activating distributors — the likes of Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Merrill Lynch, Who can get these products into the portfolios of retail investors – it will take some time.

Partner a16z suggests tracking on-chain deposits and withdrawals to addresses “identified as custodians of ETPs,” noting that more institutional investors are likely to seek exposure to crypto assets, which will lead to increased net flows to ETFs.

DEXs vs. CEXs

Decentralized exchanges are slowly eroding the market share of centralized exchanges. While their trading volume is still far behind centralized competitors, they already handle about 11% of spot trading, Matsuoka noted, adding that the number is on the rise.

“Recently, DEX volume reached an all-time high – driven by a significant spike in transaction volume on high-throughput chains like Coinbase’s Base and Solana as new users enter the space.”

Darren Matsuoka

Although Matsuoka says DEX exchanges are likely to continue gaining share in 2025, it is unclear whether retail investors will be quick to switch from centralized platforms. So far, the pace has been slow, with decentralized trading platforms taking four years to capture more than 10% of spot trading volume compared to their centralized counterparts, per Data From Devilama.

Transaction fees

In an effort to determine which blockchain network is gaining popularity, transaction fees can show how much demand there is. But here's the rub: while fees should show growth, they shouldn't be so high that they scare off users.

Last year, Solana surpassed Ethereum in terms of total fees collected for the first time, even though Solana transactions are very cheap (less than 1 cent for $5+ on Ethereum). This is a big milestone, Matsuoka admits, adding that many ecosystems and associated fee markets are maturing, making it “a good time to start measuring the economic value facilitated by different blockchains.”

In the long term, block space demand – measured as the total value of fees paid in USD – could be the most important metric for tracking progress in the cryptocurrency industry, as it reflects participation in valuable economic activities and users' willingness to pay for them. Matsuoka wrote.