Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, now believes that cryptocurrency markets will peak in mid-March and then suffer a “severe” correction.

His latest article He begins by talking about how skiing conditions in Japan are compromised by a type of bamboo known as “sasa.”

Hayes explains that heavy snowfall in Hokkaido meant that resorts were able to open prematurely – and compared to cryptocurrencies, he sees the correction he predicted came earlier than expected as well.

last month, The businessman warned that a painful sell-off will occur when Donald Trump takes office, as investors realize that the president cannot deliver on all of his pro-crypto promises.

But he now believes the so-called “Trump dump” actually happened, from mid-December until the end of the year.

In Substack, Hayes wrote that increased dollar liquidity in the first three months of 2025 has the potential to offset disappointment in White House policy and create “positive momentum” for cryptocurrencies.

“The extent of the Trump team’s disappointment with its proposed pro-crypto and pro-business legislation can be masked by a very positive dollar liquidity environment, up to $612 billion in the first quarter,” he adds.

In terms of putting this into practice as a cryptocurrency trader, Hayes says late March would be a good time to sell and “chill on the beach.”

Explaining his strategy as Maelstrom's chief investment officer, Hayes says he will now "encourage risk takers in the fund to shift risk to DEGEN", turning cryptocurrencies into decentralized scientific (DeSci) "trivial currencies."

Hayes went on to acknowledge that his latest article represents a complete U-turn on how Trump will impact cryptocurrency markets — and while he says he may be a “bad forecaster of the future,” he is at least absorbing new information and changing his opinions. Before the opportunities are lost.

"Imagine you made a hole every time you hit a golf ball, hit every three-pointer in basketball or off the break, and always pocketed every ball while playing pool. Life would be painfully boring," he writes.

This isn't the first time Hayes has done this Admit there is a low accuracy rate With his expectations (25% in 12 months, according to one statistic). But in his eyes, all that matters is achieving “success that is hopefully a little more than failure.”

Modified by Stacey Elliott.