The Coinbase Premium Index, a key measure of US investor sentiment, crossed above zero in 2025, coinciding with Bitcoin's price surpassing $102,000 on January 7.
The Coinbase Premium indicator measures how much Bitcoin is increasing or decreasing (Bitcoin) is traded on Coinbase compared to other major exchanges. The recent shift in the CPI indicates increased demand for Bitcoin among US traders and institutions, indicating a notable change in market dynamics.
The positive CPI indicates that BTC is trading at a premium to Coinbase, reflecting strong buying interest from US investors, especially institutional and corporate investors. European Training Foundation Participants. In contrast, a negative CPI usually indicates selling pressure or declining demand in the US market. Since Coinbase is one of the most popular trading platforms in the United States, its pricing trends are often considered a leading indicator of global market sentiment.
The starting point for understanding how the CPI turns positive is crucial in terms of timing and broader implications. At the same time, a huge outflow of 4,012 BTC was observed from Coinbase at 18:04 local time, meaning that institutional investors are increasingly moving BTC away from exchanges and into personal wallets; In most cases, this is viewed as a long-term “HODL” strategy and these people have a great deal of confidence in the future price movements of the asset. Burak Kesmisi, an analyst at CryptoQuant, also noted this.
Bitcoin's price rally beyond $102,000 is in line with this positive sentiment. The CPI is an early indicator of US investor behavior and further underscores the role of the US market in driving Bitcoin price trends. Additional metrics, such as open interest and on-chain data, along with the CPI returning to positive territory, point to a more bullish outlook for Bitcoin in 2025.
However, broader trends in funding rates reveal a more cautious stance in the derivatives market. Glassnode reported a weekly moving average ofPermanent financing Interest rates reached 0.009%, slightly below the neutral limit of 0.01%.
This represents a decline from the mid-December peak of 0.026%, indicating a reduced willingness among traders to pay premiums for leveraged long positions.
This cautious situation in the derivatives market indicates that while US investors are driving spot market activity, speculative appetite for high-risk leveraged positions remains weak. The difference between positivity Consumer price index The decline in financing rates highlights a split in market behavior: spot markets are showing upward trends, while futures markets are maintaining more conservative expectations.
Source link