Three years after the height of the NFT mania, which saw monthly trading volume soar into the billions of dollars and... Bored Ape Yacht Club on Tonight showcollectible tokens are gaining steam again — and so is popular NFT marketplace OpenSea.

NFT trading volume It recently reached its highest level in three monthsAfter market competitor Magic Eden concluded its airdrop in the Middle East, speculation is growing about a potential OpenSea token.

The market may or may not be interesting, as X (formerly Twitter) followers recently asked “How long have you been using OpenSea?" Many traders took this as a cheeky nod to user loyalty, which is typically a key metric used by platforms that determine premium airdrop allocations.

Both of the company's biggest competitors, Blur and Magic Eden, have completed airdrops for their users, with the latter taking over Dropping more than $700 million from the air users a week ago. OpenSea once led the NFT world then Fundraising of $13.3 billion in 2022, but it has declined sharply since then as new competitors take over.

Here's everything we know about the chances of an OpenSea token and the speculation surrounding the event.

The emergence of the OpenSea Foundation

The biggest piece of speculation about a potential OpenSea token airdrop comes from a recent filing in the Cayman Islands for the “OpenSea Foundation.”

The filing sparked immediate curiosity among cryptocurrency participants, It was highlighted by a post from the pseudonymous cryptocurrency personality Wale.Swoosh Which received more than 1.4 million impressions on X.

Often times, cryptocurrency organizations create an organization as a separate entity from their more established, consumer-facing brand. Historically, these institutions have become the organizing bodies that communicate and facilitate symbolic airdrops.

Although an organization's registration does not guarantee that a token will follow, other organizations that have recently provided users with airdropped tokens have done so via their own organizations.

Recent examples include ME Foundation for Magic Eden or Movement Network Foundation Ethereum Layer 2 network traffic.

An OpenSea spokesperson confirmed Decryption The organization is already a registered entity, but has not commented further on any association with OpenSea.

This connection became clearer on December 20 when X account using the name OpenSea Foundation “Ocean enters the chat,” he posted, likely to tease the OCEAN token.

The account, which was created in May 2024, only follows one account on the platform – OpenSea. Both OpenSea and its CEO, Devin Finzer, reacted to the post via their own accounts.

While details are still scarce, an OpenSea Foundation spokesperson said Decryption“More to come in the near future.”

Excites OpenSea 2.0

While many NFT traders have urged OpenSea to drop a token over the past few years, speculation about a potential token spiked in November.

At that time, OpenSea opened a waiting list for A completely reimagined market It's called OpenSea 2.0, after the one-time top NFT platform downsized its team in an attempt to be smarter and rethink its model.

“We've been quietly cooking at OpenSea,” said OpenSea CEO W Co-founder Devin Finzer posted on X. “To truly innovate, sometimes you have to take a step back and reimagine everything.”

Shortly after the waitlist opened, early OpenSea 2.0 beta users began sharing snippets of the new features which only fueled token speculation.

In a thread with over 360,000 views on X, there's a beta tester with a pseudonym called john.weth Show the leaderboard and point cultivation activity, suggesting that retroactive rewards were coming – although the “how and what action” was yet to be determined.

OpenSea 2.0 was previously expected to launch sometime in December, although no update has been provided at this time. To date, its waiting list has accumulated more than one million wallets.

Traders place their bets

Although details about the token launch are unknown, cryptocurrency bettors believe the chances of an OpenSea airdrop are increasing, according to prediction markets at Polymarket.

For example, odds OpenSea token announcement before 2024 It is now at nearly 60%, up from 40% in the past week. The odds briefly dropped to 20% in the morning hours of December 20, but rose sharply after the OpenSea Foundation account was published on X.

Airdrop odds have followed suit on other prediction markets available on Polymarket.

A market that allows users to bet on Dropping the OpenSea token before April 2025 It currently trades 82% in his favor. Only $50,000 has been bet in the market so far.

As for the success of the code? Over $2 million has been bet on Polymarket in predicting the market Whether the OpenSea token will trade at a fully diluted valuation in excess of $1 billion remains to be seen One week after its launch.

Market odds fell 5% in the past week, with traders pricing the probability at 56%. The market will reach 50-50 if the token is not launched by December 31, a feat that looks increasingly unlikely.

Modified by Andrew Hayward

Editor's Note: This story was originally published on December 18, 2024 and was last updated with new details on December 20.