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Stock futures rose this morning ahead of the open — a move analysts largely attribute to reports that the Trump administration will opt for a gradual approach to increasing tariffs.

Although a better-than-expected Producer Price Index report on Tuesday helped boost stocks early in the session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite quickly gave up those early gains.

But let's get back to A conversation about definitions. Bloomberg after yesterday's close I mentioned The Trump team is considering increasing tariffs at a slower pace than many initially thought, perhaps 2% to 5% per month. Ideally, this strategy will allow negotiations to take place and prevent rapid price increases.

The vision is entirely consistent with what Stephen Meran, Trump's pick to lead his Council of Economic Advisers, has told us in future guidance. Podcast A few months ago.

Miran pointed out that during the Trump 1.0 era (2018-2019), the proposed 25% tariffs on Chinese imports did not come all at once. The actual 17% effective rate increase we implemented in China was spread out over 12 months.

“The price of imports in dollars after the tariffs for goods coming from China has practically not changed,” Miran said at the event.

During his election campaign, Trump proposed tariffs ranging from 10% to 20% on all imports, and a minimum of 60% on imports from China.

“By imposing tariffs of 60% on China or 10% globally, the (gradual) approach becomes even more important,” Meiran wrote in November 2024. paper On the global trading system.

If history repeats, we could see similar trade policies come in the future - which will likely ease investor concerns and boost stocks.

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