Who are visionaries, and what helps them find new business opportunities; How to test an idea and hold a foresight session. Read to find out.

Who are the visionaries and how is their approach changing the deep tech market? We will find out what helps Lado Okhotnikov, Sam Altman and Dara Ladjevardyan discover new business opportunities. We'll talk about how to test your idea and conduct a foresight session to find a way forward.

Visionaries are people who see the future where most people only notice the present. They anticipate trends, identify direction, and find opportunities that are not yet obvious.

Of course, there are interesting inventions such as “the thinnest smartphone” or “the lightest shoes,” but it is not about dreamers.

For example, Nick Szabo is often called the visionary of his “Bit Gold” concept, which explained how to create money on the Internet without relying on banks or the state. Satoshi Nakamoto, who has become an idol for modern cryptocurrency visionaries, not only developed the idea of ​​Szabo, but created a working system, which he described in his article “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System.”

Jaron Lanier is considered a visionary in the field of virtual reality: he coined the term “Virtual reality.Later, Neal Stevenson refined this concept and introduced the term “metaverse"

Metaverse is not just a game. It is a virtual space that lives its own life. People there communicate, create projects, build businesses and have fun. Even if you're not there, there's still something going on there.

Alan Turing is another shining example of a visionary person. the Turing machine He laid the foundations of computing theory and became the predecessor of modern computers. But if we talk about personal computers to which we are accustomed, Don Estridge also deserves the title of visionary. It was he who led the team that developed the IBM Personal Computer in 1981.

Therefore, it is difficult to say with certainty who is the visionary in a particular field.

Suppose someone announced today that in the near future people will be able to teleport, and even describes the process very plausibly. But until this technology is implemented, this person remains more of a dreamer than a visionary. But the person who is the first to invent working teleportation will undoubtedly deserve this title.

Ideas that lack technology

Just a few years ago, it was nearly impossible to complete a file Complete human genome sequence Without machine learning, which is what we now call artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence has accelerated this process many times over.

Genetic sequencing is needed to understand how our genetic code works; It helps identify genetic diseases, predict disease risks, choose personalized treatments, and develop new drugs.

Until the sequence was completed, no one said that artificial intelligence was used in this process, and this is understandable. But if you think about it, the assignment was, as they say, an “extra credit question.” It would have taken decades to manually study 200 million "letters" of the genetic code out of 3 billion.

It turns out that the Human Genome Project, which was officially completed in 2003 and covers 92% of the DNA sequence, was only fully completed when artificial intelligence reached the required level.

Same story now with the metaverse. It seems that everything is ready: peer-to-peer networks have been mastered (blockchain works), devices have been created for immersion in virtual reality, and the Internet has become fast enough. But for the metaverse devices to function at full capacity, there is not enough computing power.

So, until a supercomputer is invented - based on quantum computing, superbeings will not be able to demonstrate what they are truly capable of.

Lado Okhotnikov is a visionary in the field of personalized medicine

There was a time when genome sequencing seemed unrealistic. This development took 15 years of work, cost $2.7 billion, and the price of one analysis exceeded $4,000. With the advent of artificial intelligence, everything has become simpler, faster and cheaper. Now you can decode your genome for just $300.

"Affordable sequencing opens new possibilities for personalized medicine. In the Holiverse metaverse, we plan to create a digital avatar that will help predict how training, nutrition or medications will affect you before you start changing anything in your life“He shares his plans Lado Okhotnikovfounder of a deep technology company. He is confident that this will help everyone to understand their body better and manage it without wasting the most valuable thing, which is time.

The idea of ​​a digital avatar started with medicine. Genome sequencing, data analysis, and the use of artificial intelligence have made it possible to look at health from a different angle.

But why limit it to health only? The digital avatar can become a universal tool that analyzes more than just the body. For example, they can help you choose a school for your child – with an emphasis on mathematics or the humanities.

Lado Okhotnikov claims that A Digital avatar He can become your personal assistant. He or she can advise you on how to allocate your time well, what to focus on, and what might be better to give up. This is by no means a substitute for real life, but rather a tool to help you make more accurate and informed decisions.

If you doubt that this technology will one day reach our homes, remember how a couple of years ago most of us had never heard of ChatGPT or similar models. Now millions of people use it, solving routine tasks in minutes that used to take half a day or more.

Dara Ladjevardian “brings people back to life” in one sentence

Using Delphi, you can create a virtual reflection of anyone - you, a friend, or even someone who is no longer alive.

To create your digital double, Delphi only needs four scripts. These can be messages, instant messages, YouTube videos, or even audio recordings. Accordingly, the system will train an artificial intelligence that will write and speak just like you. Thanks to a partnership with ElevenLabs, an expert in voice cloning, your chatbot will also be able to speak like you, says Dara Ladjevardian, one of the company's founders.

However, opponents of artificial intelligence panicked: what if we will soon completely stop understanding who is talking to us - a living person or his “avatar”, while the real one is lying on the bed?

Indeed, the idea of ​​cloning is fascinating, but this is not a fantasy idea. Moreover, you will understand why we are using this startup as an example.

Sam Altman is the creator of the Global Human Identification System

With the development of artificial intelligence, it is becoming increasingly difficult to understand who is a real person and who is a robot. Robots can already write texts and draw pictures, and deepfakes can fake faces and voices, as in the case of Delphi. World Network (formerly Worldcoin) wants to solve this problem by creating a database of verified people.

The idea seems logical. AI is already creating a huge amount of content, and we need more tools to differentiate people from machines.

Sam Altman in this case is a true visionary, not only did he invent a system, he also managed to launch it and get the whole world talking about it. Few people are willing to come up with a proposal like, "Let's examine the iris of billions of peopleHowever, Sam has really dealt with the problem, as the problem of counterfeit products has become more severe.

How to become a visionary and what is a clairvoyance session

Let's start with the fact that dreamers don't just fantasize. How do you understand that your idea is not fictional?

• An idea solves a real or predictable problem. Remember how the growth of data volumes drove the development of cloud computing. In 2014, Microsoft focused on remote servers and noticed a decline in demand for local servers. This decision brought the company more than $60 billion in revenue.
• The idea is future-oriented and offers long-term solutions. For example, quantum computing – at the moment it sounds like science fiction, but it is already clear that it will revolutionize medicine, space exploration, and cryptography.
• The idea is possible. Even if your ideas are very ambitious today, it is important that there is at least a theoretical path to their implementation.

Want something specific? Try an insight session.

A foresight session is a way to look into the future and understand how to prepare for it

If you have a goal, for example, to develop a company strategy for the next several years or find new business opportunities, here's how to organize it.

Collect team and data

First, determine what exactly you want to get. strategy? Ideas for new products? Reactions to market challenges?

Then invite people with different expertise: managers, analysts, experts from related fields. Prepare as much information as possible: data on trends, market reports, examples of successful cases, and even expert forecasts. This will become the basis for discussions.

Understand what affects the future of the company

Start the discussion. What factors are already changing your industry? What could become essential in 5 to 10 years? These can be technologies, politics, environment, economics and social trends. For example, for an IT company, this might be the development of artificial intelligence, changes in customer demand, or the emergence of new competitors.

Coming up with scenarios for the future

Now comes the most interesting part. Brainstorming: Let everyone express their ideas about what the world might be like in 5, 10, 20 years.

For example, if we talk about technologies: one scenario is that artificial intelligence will automate almost everything, the other is that human resistance will slow down its development. Both options need to be considered. How will the first affect the labor market? How will the second leave room for humans?

Setting priorities

When there are many ideas, they need to be organized. What scenarios seem most likely? Which one can bring the company the most profit?

For example, in 2007, Netflix held a foresight session to understand how video viewing priorities were changing. Trend analysis prompted them to switch from DVDs to streaming.

Develop a strategy

Based on the chosen scenario, create an action plan. For example, if the world is moving towards full automation, this might be training employees in new skills, implementing artificial intelligence into business processes, or creating products using new technologies.

Review the plan regularly

The world is changing rapidly, so the strategy must be updated. Regular monitoring will help you maintain your flexibility.

Foresight sessions are not just a forecasting tool, but a real way to prepare the business for change. People who can look to the future and act proactively become visionaries and set trends while others catch up.